With China clamping down on various sectors of its economy and literally killing its own multi-tiered mega developers … (more) … will we see investmen
With China clamping down on various sectors of its economy and literally killing its own multi-tiered mega developers … (more) … will we see investment from China stop?
The short answer is, we are already stopping it from our side: Election promise: No more foreign investment allowed for 2 years. (Actually, think about how you would feel with your US investment in Palm Springs if the US retaliated?)
But you raise several interesting points. It looks like the Chinese government is attacking (literally) its mega corporations (Ali Baba, etc.) and has in the process thrown all international bond debt holders under the bus.
Big international problems:
- Chinese developer woes are crushing Chinese and emerging market high yield debt. Typical China problem. Companies do not report losses … that is why it waits until a big crash forces the report. Surprise!
- Evergrande, which has more than $300 billion in liabilities and 1,300 real estate projects in over 280 cities – means that cities like London will see their real estate markets (likely) get under pressure as it cannot finish projects.
- It’s not just Evergrande. Greenland Holdings – which has built some of the world’s tallest residential towers – and E-house have had their ratings cut. Fantasia missed bond payments. Bonds issued by developers including Shanghai Shimao Co. Ltd. China Aoyuan Group and Country Garden Properties Group up to 7.4%, (exchange data), while Kaisa Group – the first Chinese real estate firm to default back in 2015 – saw some of its dollar-denominated bonds drop to as low as thirty-five cents on the dollar, pushing their yields to nearly 60%. Note: Kaisa has $3.2 billion of international bonds to repay next year, second only to Evergrande which has $3.5 billion.
- The $5 trillion Chinese property sector accounts for around a quarter of the Chinese economy. Imagine this: The spread on the equivalent high-yield or ‘junk’-rated index that these companies would have to pay (all time high 2,337 basis points)! That drove the yield – to 24%.
Major Point: Massive defaults of mostly foreign and US denominate borrowers. (China govt has indicated it wants local buyers and investors hold whole – but does not care about outsiders.) That means sharp price declines and huge losses by investors in wealth management products, contractors, builders, and services. And of course, massive numbers of pre-sale buyers. And yes, by implication, less money coming to Canada. Watch Evergrande issues explained here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ih8hDsqKcTU
Another China note: On October 7 China told state owned companies to shore up and store supply for winter! Procure as many energy resources as possible. Will not tolerate lack of action. Right now, coal, oil gas all brought up at record prices and record amounts. We do not know what China is expecting … but clearly oil and other commodities are not going down anytime soon.
Also, China wants to know who has the money. That is why they hate crypto and that is why they make dealing in crypto a criminal offence. You think that’s only China, look below at what the US democrats want banks to do.