Ozzie Jurock's Profile
Guru
1394
Points

Questions
1

Answers
214

  • Guru Asked on March 1, 2024 in Real Estate.

    David Rosenberg and others would agree with you. Again, remember, what kind of inflation are we talking about? The monetary driven hard asset inflation? Or the headline, core (8 kinds of) or CPI/PPI? There is a difference. I look at hard asset inflation. Look at stocks below as well – soaring, real estate rearing quietly? Well, even the Government reported inflation rates are showing increases month over month both in US and in Canada. The actual rates are still soaring (did you go shopping lately, eat in a restaurant, look for a rental, pay gas, buy  a car?). The stock markets are soaring– say inflating. 

    Note: Victor Adair (https://victoradair.ca/subscribe/) writes in its incredibly accurate newsletter (still free) that the Euro Stoxx 50 (a European version of the DJIA) has rallied ~20% to 23-year highs. The Japanese Nikkei is up ~27%, just a few points away from touching the All-Time Highs made in 1989. The Toronto Composite Index closed this week at a 22-month high, up ~17% from the October lows, and in the US the DJIA, S&P and the NAZ made new All-Time Highs this week but closed lower on the weekly charts.

    NOTE: I grant you; it is confusing. Large TECH cos layoffs muddy the waters indeed. We stick with our multi year predictions. All the money creation will result in higher asset prices. But we must ‘muddle through’ first.

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  • True and stock markets are soaring. Confusing. The major layoffs in major tech companies tells a story in the US and Europe. In Canada we just had Bell lay off 4,300 people.  At the same time we can’t get enough construction workers, health workers all service sectors.

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  •  There is indeed some 135 billion of mortgages in 2024 and some 350 billion in 2025 coming due in Canada. The US commercial market is in serious trouble. I DO believe we will muddle through, but for now I would be much more comfortable on the sidelines.  

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  • Guru Asked on March 1, 2024 in Real Estate.

    I make it clear that I put it in only to highlight any false euphoria. The high SF price in January’s FV SF home price was indeed higher than January 2023 by 14% ($1,500,000) but it achieved a high of $1,900,000 in February 2022.

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  • Guru Asked on March 1, 2024 in Real Estate.
    1. Actually we ‘nailed it’ in 2021 when we told you about this and other collapsing Chinese companies building in London and LA. Revisit issue No 64! An excerpt:  
    2. Chinese developer woes are crushing Chinese and emerging market high yield debt. Typical China problem. Companies do not report losses…that is why it waits until a big crash forces the report. Surprise! 
    3. Evergrande, which has more than $300 billion in liabilities and 1,300 real estate projects in over 280 cities – means that cities like London will see their  real estate markets (likely) get under pressure as it cannot finish projects.

    Nothing more to tell, Empty cities, crashing economy, a 40% decline in its stock market… China is in depression. However, money will continue to try and flee and some of it will find its way here!

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  • Guru Asked on July 12, 2023 in Real Estate.

    Not a realtor but am partner in a real estate company. The average house price in 1965 was $13,500. When I forecast ongoing higher asset price inflation in my 1998 book (based on government overprinting) the average price was $278,000. Now it is $2,200,000. Not in a straight line … but always, always relentlessly higher. Now you must add timing to that to get it right.

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  • Guru Asked on July 12, 2023 in Real Estate.

    Well, it is 3 mortgage companies in Britain not Britain itself. I guess they have so much money to lend and this is their way to get it out. Still…astounding!

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  • Guru Asked on July 12, 2023 in Real Estate.

    ESG stands for environmental, social and governance. These are called pillars in ESG frameworks and represent the 3 main areas that companies are expected to report in. The goal of ESG is to capture all the non-financial risks and opportunities inherent to a company’s day to day activities.
    Opponents say ESG investments allocate money based on political agendas, such as a drive against climate change, rather than on earning the best returns for savers. They say ESG is just the latest example of the world trying to get “woke. “Proponents believe that by buying company stocks that have a high ESG rating they help the world.

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  • Guru Asked on July 12, 2023 in Real Estate.

    Yes, there are rating services such as Bloomberg, Fitch ratings or Moody’s. Yes, it could help stock buyers identify how a company rates on ESG issues. More importantly it may impact not only buyers but lenders (get better financing), employees, etc. I think that ‘woke’ or not, companies are striving for a good ESG rating. In my view it is also a reason why major corporations make seemingly idiotic decisions. There cannot be another reason. In the drive to get better ratings (better interest rates etc.) they try to please a small minority and manage to offend regular customers. 

    It becomes a question for companies: Who is your client? What is the purpose of your company? Who is it run for? SHAREHOLDERS OR STAKEHOLDERS?

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