Ozzie Jurock's Profile
Guru
1346
Points

Questions
1

Answers
190

  • Guru Asked on October 23, 2022 in Real Estate.

    Crucial point, total change of direction. In our situation:
    The US Federal Reserve prints money like crazy with the result that inflation runs away. It then pivots and stops printing and even draws funds out of the market, creating inflation by cutting rate to zero, has been the modus operandi for all Central banks for years and years. This year however they got scared and furiously raised rates. Oops, too high? So, it could PIVOT again, lower rates, lead to inflation, etc. So, will we have a continuous raise in rates, leading to a recession – or a PIVOT to more inflation?

    We as investors get bounced around looking for these pivot points.

    Next ones? 
    October 26 – Bank of Canada (likely up .75%!)
    November – US FED. We think the FED may raise .75% or even 1% – noting the British debacle. We also think their stated objective of 4.6% will end up being higher…can you say 5.5%? Annoyingly they may feel that they must stay the course. So:

    We think it 70% likely that tightening will continue. There is however now a (England) chance (30%?) of a capitulation and pivot back to lower rates – or stay even. Arrrgh!

    MAJOR POINT: Either way…we called it ‘four ugly months ahead’ (ugly – as in uncertainty). If the US keeps raising rates in November and December, stay out. This will affect real estate values and sales dramatically further. If they do not raise – wait. If they lower rates, go BUY, BUY.

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  • Guru Asked on October 23, 2022 in Real Estate.

    A classic PIVOT! But worse: A Black Swan! Totally unexpected and a preview of things to come?

    The Bank of England (was forced to) pivot on its obligation to fight inflation. Promising to lower taxes and not increase corporate taxes – they did a PIVOT. This followed a sell-off of long-dated government bonds that led the Bank of England to intervene in order to save Pension funds from collapse. Result? A spike in mortgage rates for prospective homeowners. A huge crisis resulted and is still going on.

    Super investor Stanley Druckenmiller believes that the Bank of England is making a terrible mistake by pivoting during a time of inflation.

    MAJOR POINT 1: It is clear the BOE wanted to take a hawkish stance and engage in quantitative tightening to curb inflation. However, the totally unexpected Black Swan of a possible Pension fund crisis forced the BOE to shift unbelievably back to quantitative easing to salvage UK’s monetary crisis. They went impossibly back to QE while having inflation around 10%! The UK remains in turmoil. Today Finance Minister and Treasurer were fired.

    MAJOR POINT 2: Our lesson? Our Pension funds could be in trouble too. Or any of the myriad of financial derivative instruments could create a ‘rush out’ of investors. Which one? No one knows. A Black Swan can happen at any time… Stay vigilant and mostly in cash.

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  • Guru Asked on October 23, 2022 in Real Estate.

    Not sure I understand the question. We solved one year’s problem by creating more debt to pay for the printed money and then (mostly now) borrowed money. High levels of debt at the sovereign level turned into extreme high debt. We need (and had it for while) extreme consistent economic growth in excess of interest rate on that debt. But no more. With 8% reported inflation and a 4% interest rate – we are negative 4%! Thus, we create inflationary expectations. That leads to hyper inflation. Maybe not Argentina at 100% or Turkey at 90% but clear double-digit inflation.

    Plus, you need an affordable price of cheap energy when you have high levels of debts. In this world of greening, we have ever higher costs of energy, we have slowing growth and interest on our own debt keeps rising.

    MAJOR POINT 3: You cannot have high levels of inflation, and then print more money or we will have hyper inflation. That is what makes the British situation so astounding (bad, bad, bad). The dilemma? Raise rates – slow economy – recession. Lower rates – get high hyperinflation. We are in trouble in Canada. The US not as much, Europe is in big trouble and BLACK SWANS ARE FLYING.

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  • Guru Asked on October 23, 2022 in Real Estate.

    As we forecast: The US clocked in at 6.6% core, 8.2% cpi (highest level since 1982) and 11.2% on food. (September).
    Again: Read previous Ozbuzz issues. Go to shadowstats.com and see what the real ‘Volker’ rate is.

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  • Guru Asked on October 23, 2022 in Real Estate.

    Good point. I believe strongly in Alberta! My wife and I own condos in Edmonton, near new with outstanding cashflow. I guess, we try to cater to where we think we have the largest audience: BC, Ontario, and the US. We did report a massive inflow of Toronto and BC buyers into Alberta. Re/Max adds: Condo sales are up 65 per cent year-over-year in Calgary, while sales in Edmonton are up 23 per cent over 2021 levels. It issued a report that credits buyers from out-of-province investing in the Alberta housing stock.

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  • Guru Asked on August 30, 2022 in Real Estate.

    I didn’t. The people I quoted. High brow entities – the SEC. Also, I said most. Prediction: Out of the 18,000 alt coins fewer than 100 will survive. Why? Fraud and scam. So not all, BUT clearly most!

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  • Guru Asked on August 30, 2022 in Real Estate.

    When I am being paid, I MUST do things. When not, I can or cannot. My blog however generates sales of thousands of books, tapes, and dozens of leads to our meetings…etc. However, there are moments…I wonder myself.

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  • Guru Asked on August 30, 2022 in Real Estate.

    We wrote about it two years ago. Yes, we are desirable, but not No.1. But by many: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/migration-of-millionaires-worldwide-2022/ – which stands us in good stead.

     

    Mapping the Migration of the World’s Millionaires

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  • Guru Asked on August 30, 2022 in Real Estate.

    Yes, CMHC and the BOC are forecasting sharp declines. I’m not surprised that they want to limit potential losses. But how, why, and how much do they expect the market will decline and by when?

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