Ozzie Jurock's Profile
Guru
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1

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22

  • Guru Asked on June 6, 2019 in Real Estate.

    Please look forward to the next edition of Oz Buzz http://ozbuzz.ca, where I will go into detail about inflation/deflation and how they can exist at the same time.

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  • I did not see it, but what a brilliant idea. In my ‘25 secrets of buying and selling real estate’, I talk about getting and wooing your bird dogs, by that I meant your local notary public, your property managers, etc. ‘Uber’ drivers drive people from out of town, visitors, and speculators, so to have one or two as your spies just may work to find out all the ‘by owners’ etc.

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  • Guru Asked on June 6, 2019 in Real Estate.

    In principle the answer is that REITs go up when interest rates go down and fall when interest rates go up. The biggest benefit is that this is a security; trading in a stock market, so getting in and out is easy. REITs have had great performance when rates went down but you must examine and study the great variety of REITs available (residential, office, retail, apartments, mini-storage, hotels, etc.) In a REIT you will always buy the management, performance and the asset class base. And yes, sit down with your broker and study their research.

    Major Point: Please note that REITs go down in the beginning of a recession (like an early warning system).

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  • Guru Asked on June 6, 2019 in Real Estate.

    You are right. People can’t stop buying gas. BUT! The ‘Revenge of the Little Man’ would be if, for 3 days, everybody agreed not to buy gas at say: Shell, or Chevron, or any of the other stations. Then rotate. Gas staying in the tanks at gas stations must be sold – at whatever price. No, I am not organizing, just musing after I just paid $1.92 a liter.

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  • Guru Asked on June 6, 2019 in Real Estate.

    Yes, several people wondered about that. It comes from the German – “Die Rache des kleinen Mannes!” It simply means that if you can’t fight and win (and know it!) you take revenge wherever you can. So, against all corporations, powerful individuals etc. that annoy us we can do something. They won’t know, often not care, but we – the little men/women know and feel good about it. For instance: Not flying a particular airline for a month, removing TV channels that flash commercials while you’re watching a movie or simply not parking in a specific parking company lot etc. Maybe it should be the revenge of the ‘little people’.

    Major Point: It may not have an impact on them, but it will have an impact on you and me as in feeling better – the little men/women.

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  • Guru Asked on June 6, 2019 in Real Estate.

    Always remember to look at statistics in detail. My statistics show that US new sales are down 7% over March, used sales are higher.

    1. New sales represent less than 6% of the overall real estate sales. Used sales represent 94% of the market and are up by 4% (according to NAR).

    2. Monthly swings from one month (March to April etc.) to the next are a useless exercise. What matters is how April 2019 performance measured against April 2018 or 2017? Now you can make an informed decision as to the direction of the market (Vancouver March-April sales were higher, yet April vs April 2018 were 30% lower and against April 2016 65% lower!

    Major Point: US Interest rates have come down; sales remain strong and US consumers are spending. Finally, we are being asked which cities we like – just revisit Oz Buzz #25 for our top 5 favourite cities. The total ‘about turn’ of the FED will see US rates cut further by September.

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  • Guru Asked on June 6, 2019 in Real Estate.

    Yes, investors are diving into the 10-year bond in droves! Thus, driving the field sharply lower. It is not necessary a harbinger of recession … but it needs watching!

    The last time this happened was August 2007. In Germany now people are so eager for safety that they will accept TO PAY to leave their money in the bank as banks PAY -0.7%! That means you put in $100,000 and it costs you $700 to be there! Never mind earning interest.

    Major Point: Trouble ahead? Yes. We will likely muddle through but once again: cash is not trash.The older you are, the closer you should be to your favourite commodity: Cash!

    Immediate impact on mortgages. The long-term rates (Canada’s 5-year term rate, US 30-year rate) are tied to the long-term bond rates. With them crashing, long term mortgages will follow.

    US: The 30-year mortgage is down to 3.9%. At the end of June there will be 2 million US households able to refinance their rates … they will and will have more cash to spend.

    CANADA: The 5-year rate is down to as low as 2.7 % (if you did not just have your TV repossessed!). This makes it easier on households, but the stress test still places the new borrower at 5.4% to qualify. NUTS! Again: WE SHOULD ACTIVELY PURSUE AND SUE, CREDIT CARD COMPANIES AND STORES THAT CHARGE 20% – 27%. IT IS USURY!

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  • Here are some astounding predictions from me from the Land Rush conference.

    RE: You said in the last Oz Buzz that you would highlight some forecasts from Land Rush – I haven’t seen them yet?

    These retirements countries have large expat populations, and some give you the ‘golden visa’: Buy a house/condo and get a passport.

    RE: You said in the last Oz Buzz that you would highlight some forecasts from Land Rush – I haven’t seen them yet?


    We have recommended most of these for 9 years…still do.

    RE: You said in the last Oz Buzz that you would highlight some forecasts from Land Rush – I haven’t seen them yet?


    Some thoughts: Next day delivery need downtown warehouse space. 140,000 students need rentals, 2nd largest movie producer needs studio space. Investors rejoice.

    RE: You said in the last Oz Buzz that you would highlight some forecasts from Land Rush – I haven’t seen them yet?


    Deal of a lifetime always comes in downturns. Oh, and remember: “you don’t get what you deserve – you get what you negotiate!”

    RE: You said in the last Oz Buzz that you would highlight some forecasts from Land Rush – I haven’t seen them yet?


    Does not apply to all. But with some 50 projects on hold … it may apply to you!

    RE: You said in the last Oz Buzz that you would highlight some forecasts from Land Rush – I haven’t seen them yet?


    The future is here today!

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  • Guru Asked on June 6, 2019 in Real Estate.

    Vancouver has experienced major downturns in 1974, 1978, 1981 – 1984 (16% interest rates), 1989, 1993 (13.5% mortgage), 1998, 2008. It recovered from all of them. Other markets? Toronto had a 16% sales increase, Montreal ditto (prices up 7% and volume 15%). Ottawa seems to be even reversing Canada’s declining home price trend by “experiencing its biggest boom in almost a decade,” according to The Globe and Mail increasing price by 8% in March.

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  • Guru Asked on June 6, 2019 in Real Estate.

    The market recovered right away too and again “I am not a stock market advisor” – but if I were – the number 1 thing I would do is “WATCH LIQUIDITY”.

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