All my numbers come from all the boards. Nowhere else. The boards put out the best numbers. Average price, median price, benchmark price, seasonal adj price etc. But you have to pick the right ones for your purpose. I like to pick the averages – because they were actual deals done in an actual month.

A great example of confusing is this week’s posting of transactions from the Toronto Real Estate Board

1. Action sales Feb 2022 = 9,028. Actual numbers of sales Feb 2023 = 4,783 – DOWN = 47%
2. Season adjust Jan 2023 =4,814. Seasonal adjusted Feb 2023 = 5,224    UP + 8.5%

If you see number 2 all is well, even downright good. UP 8.5%
If you see number 1 all is bad, very bad. Down 47%.
To compare these side by side is ridiculous until you also quote January 2022 versus Feb 2022.

Multiple offers on best priced properties under $1 million price range I heard about too. But reality is, that mortgage brokers tell me: “…it is much harder to get the application” over the line ”or funds were withdrawn at the last minute”, or client file is waiting 7 weeks for approval. Realtors tell me, I have 8 deals, but only 2 will close for sure (financing other subjects uncertain). Buyers spook easily. Very, very few multiple offers.

Some will not survive the increases. Most will. YOU? Be in cash until the smog lifts.

5 Canadian banks have 5,701 branches. In the US they have (previous defaults) 5,000 banks with 1 branch. One branch can easily default. Not the massive Canadian banks!

No it does not, pre-sale contracts fall under a seven-day rescission period under  section 21 of the Real Estate Development Marketing Act;
While I am at it, it also does not apply to leased land (such as First Nation leaseholds), residential real estate sold at  auction; and residential real estate sold under a court order or supervision of a court.
Also, of course, it applies ONLY to subject free offers. If you already have subject clauses in the contract, they matter first.

Blush. Just to make sure: You are not my mother or father, right? You are very kind. I was not however the only one on Evergrande or the several others but I pointed out that China’s real estate MARKET was in trouble  and with the Chinese population massively involved in real estate this was a foreboding of things Chinese to come. Real Estate is THEEE major economic driver in China, so people losing money will have an impact how they will act,

Again, I am only – as above – reporting what I think may make a major impact eventually on real estate in NA .

As far as THE Numbers go. I have reported them faithfully for 28 years…nothing new here. I believe in reporting actual numbers very month but also compare them to

1. The previous high in the market
2. The last 4 years

Not sure what you are after. We are an aging society. We need people! Working people, young people – pay our pensions.

Crucial point, total change of direction. In our situation:
The US Federal Reserve prints money like crazy with the result that inflation runs away. It then pivots and stops printing and even draws funds out of the market, creating inflation by cutting rate to zero, has been the modus operandi for all Central banks for years and years. This year however they got scared and furiously raised rates. Oops, too high? So, it could PIVOT again, lower rates, lead to inflation, etc. So, will we have a continuous raise in rates, leading to a recession – or a PIVOT to more inflation?

We as investors get bounced around looking for these pivot points.

Next ones? 
October 26 – Bank of Canada (likely up .75%!)
November – US FED. We think the FED may raise .75% or even 1% – noting the British debacle. We also think their stated objective of 4.6% will end up being higher…can you say 5.5%? Annoyingly they may feel that they must stay the course. So:

We think it 70% likely that tightening will continue. There is however now a (England) chance (30%?) of a capitulation and pivot back to lower rates – or stay even. Arrrgh!

MAJOR POINT: Either way…we called it ‘four ugly months ahead’ (ugly – as in uncertainty). If the US keeps raising rates in November and December, stay out. This will affect real estate values and sales dramatically further. If they do not raise – wait. If they lower rates, go BUY, BUY.

A classic PIVOT! But worse: A Black Swan! Totally unexpected and a preview of things to come?

The Bank of England (was forced to) pivot on its obligation to fight inflation. Promising to lower taxes and not increase corporate taxes – they did a PIVOT. This followed a sell-off of long-dated government bonds that led the Bank of England to intervene in order to save Pension funds from collapse. Result? A spike in mortgage rates for prospective homeowners. A huge crisis resulted and is still going on.

Super investor Stanley Druckenmiller believes that the Bank of England is making a terrible mistake by pivoting during a time of inflation.

MAJOR POINT 1: It is clear the BOE wanted to take a hawkish stance and engage in quantitative tightening to curb inflation. However, the totally unexpected Black Swan of a possible Pension fund crisis forced the BOE to shift unbelievably back to quantitative easing to salvage UK’s monetary crisis. They went impossibly back to QE while having inflation around 10%! The UK remains in turmoil. Today Finance Minister and Treasurer were fired.

MAJOR POINT 2: Our lesson? Our Pension funds could be in trouble too. Or any of the myriad of financial derivative instruments could create a ‘rush out’ of investors. Which one? No one knows. A Black Swan can happen at any time… Stay vigilant and mostly in cash.

Not sure I understand the question. We solved one year’s problem by creating more debt to pay for the printed money and then (mostly now) borrowed money. High levels of debt at the sovereign level turned into extreme high debt. We need (and had it for while) extreme consistent economic growth in excess of interest rate on that debt. But no more. With 8% reported inflation and a 4% interest rate – we are negative 4%! Thus, we create inflationary expectations. That leads to hyper inflation. Maybe not Argentina at 100% or Turkey at 90% but clear double-digit inflation.

Plus, you need an affordable price of cheap energy when you have high levels of debts. In this world of greening, we have ever higher costs of energy, we have slowing growth and interest on our own debt keeps rising.

MAJOR POINT 3: You cannot have high levels of inflation, and then print more money or we will have hyper inflation. That is what makes the British situation so astounding (bad, bad, bad). The dilemma? Raise rates – slow economy – recession. Lower rates – get high hyperinflation. We are in trouble in Canada. The US not as much, Europe is in big trouble and BLACK SWANS ARE FLYING.